2026 Australian Grand Prix Predictions
My predictions for the 2026 Australian Grand Prix
It’s finally here - the first Grand Prix of the 2026 season! As someone who was a fan of sports with much longer breaks for most of my life (hockey and the NFL), it always shocks me how quick the turnaround time is between the final Grand Prix of the year in December and the start of testing and the next season. This year in particular was a whirlwind of new regulations, engine changes, and secret shakedown days.
The new regulations also make this particular race almost impossible to intelligently predict. We know nothing about the relative strengths of the different cars and power units because we haven’t seen a single car on track for even a minute of competitive driving. And that brings me to my predictions for the 2026 Australian Grand Prix:
Pole
In pole, I have Max Verstappen. I think the best drivers will be the ones able to best navigate the unknowns of the new cars, new power units, and new energy management strategies, and there is no better driver on the grid than Verstappen.
P1
I also have Max Verstappen finishing P1 in the Grand Prix for the same reasons. Given all the unknowns of how the racing will happen this season, Max is the best bet to convert on a pole start and win the GP.
P2
In P2, I have Charles Leclerc. I believe Ferrari will have a significant advantage, particularly during the early part of the season, at the start of the race. Leclerc will leverage this advantage to overcome any qualifying deficit he may have. It remains to be seen how easy it will be to overtake with the new cars, so I think Leclerc has a good chance of being able to hold on to P2 throughout the race.
P3
Although we don’t know if we’ve seen their best pace during testing, Mercedes is the favorite to have the fastest car for the first half of this season. I think this pace will let George Russell keep Leclerc from getting too far away and hold off any other challengers from McLaren or the other Red Bull or Ferrari drivers.
Bonus Question: Will both Aston Martin cars finish the Grand Prix?
As painful as this is for Alonso, I don’t think both Aston Martin cars will finish the race. Whether they both retire during formation or whether they start the race and then at least one retires due to mechanical problems, they’ve simply done too few files for me to feel confident that both drivers will be able to complete the race.
I can’t wait for Saturday morning to see Qualifying and then later Saturday night for the Grand Prix to see how these predictions pan out and get our first look at actual competitive racing for the 2026 season!